Do solar storms put satellite software at risk?

Solar storms mainly affect satellites through physics: more atmospheric drag in low orbit and disturbed navigation signals, per NOAA. Software risk is a separate, indirect question: how well ground and flight software handle unexpected conditions and updates. The sources we read document the first, not a direct software supply chain link.

This explainer keeps the two ideas apart so you can reason about them without alarm. It predicts nothing and names no incident. Space weather is real, measurable and monitored, and ordinary engineering discipline covers most of the software side.

What does NOAA say storms do?

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center describes geomagnetic storms as disturbances of Earth's magnetic field. On its phenomena page it lists effects relevant here:

• Satellite drag. Storm heating expands the upper atmosphere, which adds drag on satellites in low Earth orbit.
• Navigation errors. Uneven ionospheric density can cause GPS position errors, and storms "can disrupt navigation systems such as the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)."
• Power and pipelines. Storms can induce currents in power grids and pipelines.

The storms are rated on a G-Scale tied to the Kp index. We did not retrieve the scale's level definitions, so check NOAA's space weather scales page for them.

Where does software come in?

Software does not cause storms and storms do not infect software. The connection is operational. A storm is an unusual condition, and unusual conditions are where assumptions in code get tested. We found no primary source claiming storms create supply chain vulnerabilities, so treat the following as engineering questions, not findings.

Orbit and tracking software. Extra drag changes where a satellite will be. Operators rely on prediction software, and the quality of its inputs and libraries matters.

Timing and navigation consumers. Many systems on the ground use GNSS signals for position and time. If those degrade, software that assumes clean timing may misbehave. That is a dependency on an external signal, as real as a dependency on a library.

Ground segment software. Satellite operators run ground systems built on ordinary operating systems and open source components. Those components carry the same vulnerabilities as any other, and an operator may need to patch them while also handling an event.

Update pressure. A rushed update during a stressful event is riskier than one tested in advance.

Which standards or guidance apply?

We did not fetch a space specific standard, so we will not cite one. For the ground side, the general OT and ICS security material applies: NIST SP 800-82 covers securing programmable systems that interact with the physical environment, with performance, reliability and safety in mind. Your sector regulator or contract may name others.

What is a calm, proportionate response?

Assume neither disaster nor immunity. Do the ordinary things well:

• Know which of your systems depend on satellite signals for time or position.
• Know what software runs on your ground systems and keep a dependency inventory.
• Rehearse degraded operation: what happens if GNSS is wrong or lost for a while?
• Keep updates tested and staged, so an emergency does not force an untested change.
• Subscribe to official space weather alerts and decide in advance who reads them.

An SBOM for ground software helps you answer "are we affected?" quickly when a library flaw is announced, at any time, storm or not. Safeguard's CLI can generate an SBOM and match it against advisories, as one way to keep that inventory current.

What to do

1. List systems that rely on GNSS time or position, and note the fallback for each.
2. List ground and control software with versions and key dependencies.
3. Generate and store an SBOM for each ground system you maintain.
4. Run a tabletop exercise on degraded navigation, with a clear owner.
5. Test update and rollback procedures before you need them.
6. Subscribe to NOAA SWPC alerts and assign someone to watch them.
7. Review the plan once a year and after any major change.

Quick check

Sources

• NOAA SWPC: Geomagnetic storms
• NIST SP 800-82 Rev. 3, Guide to Operational Technology Security
• Safeguard CLI documentation

Last reviewed: 18 October 2026.