The post-quantum timeline so far runs from the stateful signature recommendation in October 2020 to the additional signature round 3 announcement in May 2026. The three main standards were finalized on 13 August 2024. This post lists only dated items I confirmed on official or primary pages.
The verified milestones
- 29 October 2020: NIST SP 800-208 final, specifying the stateful hash-based signatures LMS and XMSS.
- 24 August 2023: draft of FIPS 203 (ML-KEM), per the document history on NIST's page.
- 13 August 2024: FIPS 203 (ML-KEM), FIPS 204 (ML-DSA) and FIPS 205 (SLH-DSA) published.
- 12 November 2024: NIST IR 8547 initial public draft, on the transition. Comments closed 10 January 2025 and were posted 21 January 2025.
- 11 March 2025: NIST announces HQC as a backup key-encapsulation algorithm, with a final standard expected in 2027.
- 21 May 2025: Gidney submits a resource estimate for factoring RSA-2048 with under a million noisy qubits.
- 18 September 2025: NIST SP 800-227 final, recommendations for key-encapsulation mechanisms.
- 28 October 2025: Cloudflare reports over 50 percent of its human traffic uses post-quantum key agreement.
- 14 May 2026: NIST announces round 3 candidates in the additional signature process, per NIST's page.
Targets and goals
These are not milestones but planning anchors:
- 2030: NIST's draft proposes deprecating 112-bit quantum-vulnerable algorithms after this year.
- 2035: the draft proposes disallowing quantum-vulnerable public-key algorithms after this year. The same year is the federal goal in National Security Memorandum 10.
What is still open
I could not confirm from the pages fetched:
- Whether IR 8547 has been finalized.
- The status of the draft for the Falcon-based signature standard.
- Whether the HQC draft has been released.
Check NIST's project page for each before you cite a status.
How to use a timeline
A list like this is useful for explaining to a board or a customer that the standards are real and dated. It is less useful for predicting hardware. Standards progress does not tell you when a large quantum computer will exist.
When you write your own plan, separate three tracks:
- Standards: what exists and is stable.
- Policy: dated goals from government or regulators that apply to you.
- Hardware: uncertain, so treat it as a risk range, not a date.
Keeping your own copy current
Add this list to your internal wiki with owner and review date, and review it quarterly. When something changes, change your plan only if it affects a decision you have already made.
Quick check
When were the first three NIST post-quantum standards finalized?
13 August 2024, for FIPS 203, FIPS 204 and FIPS 205.
Is the 2035 date a NIST prediction of when quantum computers arrive?
No. It is a transition goal, not a hardware forecast.
Sources
- NIST SP 800-208
- FIPS 203
- FIPS 204
- FIPS 205
- NIST IR 8547 record
- NIST announcement on HQC
- Gidney, 2025
- NIST SP 800-227
- Cloudflare, 2025
- NIST additional signature schemes
Last reviewed: 19 October 2026.
