The Sun is in the declining phase of its current 11 year cycle, and that is not the same as quiet. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and the UK Met Office both say so. This update covers what they currently publish, one well documented satellite loss, and what it means for companies that rely on satellites, GPS time or power.
It does not forecast a specific storm. Nobody can, beyond a few days ahead.
What the sources say
Cycle status. NOAA's solar cycle page, showing a date of 10 October 2026, cites the 2019 NOAA, NASA and ISES panel prediction of a maximum of 115 in July 2025, within a range of 105 to 125 and a peak window between November 2024 and March 2026. It says the prediction is updated monthly, and that Solar Cycle 26 is expected to begin between January 2029 and December 2032. NOAA does not yet issue a prediction for it.
Met Office, 29 January 2026. The Met Office space weather manager, Krista Hammond, wrote: "The Sun's overall activity may be in a declining phase, but our vigilance for severe space weather certainly isn't." She noted that the strongest and most significant space weather events have historically come "after solar maximum has occurred." The blog also describes the current cycle as "not notable by historical standards," though the largest maximum since the Met Office's operations centre began in 2014.
What NOAA says storms do. On NOAA's scales, a G5 (Extreme) geomagnetic storm can bring widespread voltage control and protective system problems, some grids may "experience complete collapse or blackouts," and spacecraft "may experience extensive surface charging, problems with orientation, uplink/downlink and tracking." G5 storms occur about 4 per cycle (4 days). G4 (Severe) storms, about 100 per cycle (60 days), may bring surface charging and tracking problems and require orientation corrections.
A documented satellite loss. In February 2022 SpaceX lost 38 of 49 newly launched Starlink satellites. A joint study by NOAA, CIRES and SpaceX engineers found that a minor geomagnetic storm increased atmospheric drag and reduced satellite stability at the low altitude where the batch was released. NOAA says it is updating models for low Earth orbit, and SpaceX is making satellite system updates. The lesson is specific: even a minor storm mattered for satellites at very low altitude. It does not generalise to all satellites.
Evidence and speculation
Evidence: NOAA's scales, the Met Office statements, the 2022 study. Uncertain: the probability of an extreme storm in any given year. NOAA's own frequency of 4 G5 days per cycle is an average. A review of the May 2024 storm, rated G5, described it as a low level G5 whose observed impacts were relatively minor, which shows how wide the range inside one category can be. We have not read that review in full.
Speculation: any claim that a specific year, including 2027, is a danger year. The sources above support no such date.
What to check in your stack
- GPS time. Which servers, base stations or devices take time from a GNSS receiver? Do they have a fallback?
- Satellite links. Which sites depend on a satellite connection? Do they have a second path?
- Power. How long can your sites and your key providers run on backup power?
- Providers. Do your critical vendors state how they plan for space weather?
What to do now
- Write down every system that uses GNSS time or a satellite link.
- Add a terrestrial fallback or a holdover clock where the system is critical.
- Subscribe to NOAA SWPC alerts or the Met Office service.
- Include "satellite and GPS unavailable for 48 hours" in one tabletop exercise.
- Keep an inventory of your assets so the answer to "what depends on this" is a lookup, not a hunt.
Quick check
Does the declining phase of the solar cycle mean no more strong storms?
No. The Met Office notes the strongest events have historically come after solar maximum, and NOAA says G4 storms occur on average about 60 days per cycle.
What did the 2022 Starlink loss show?
That a minor storm can raise drag enough to doom satellites released at very low altitude. It was a launch specific case, not proof of broader satellite fragility.
Sources
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center: Solar cycle progression
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center: NOAA space weather scales
- Met Office: Declining phase for the Sun's activity, but what's next? 29 January 2026
- CIRES: A minor geomagnetic storm, a big impact: the February 2022 Starlink satellite loss
