South Africa data centres and power in 2026: Eskom, wheeling, AI loads

South Africa has gone 518 consecutive days without load shedding, according to Eskom's 16 October 2026 statement. That helps data centre builders, but the grid is not the only question. Large AI sites need hundreds of megawatts, and getting that power depends on grid access, wheeling rules and transmission capacity.

Key numbers at a glance

• Days without load shedding: 518 consecutive, since 16 May 2025 (Eskom media statement, 16 October 2026).
• Energy availability factor, year to date 1 April to 15 October 2026: 68.2%, against 62.63% a year earlier (Eskom, 16 October 2026).
• Same measure for the week of 9 to 15 October 2026: 70.80%, against 63.58% a year earlier (Eskom, 16 October 2026).
• Surplus capacity on 16 October 2026: 5,695 MW (Eskom, 16 October 2026).
• Evening peak forecast for 16 October 2026: 23,966 MW against 26,143 MW available excluding gas (Eskom, 16 October 2026).
• Cold reserve held, 2 October 2026: 6,722 MW (Eskom, 2 October 2026).
• Unplanned outages, year to date: 18.9% of capacity, 6.67 percentage points lower than a year earlier (Eskom, 16 October 2026).
• Diesel spend, 1 April to 15 October 2026: R1.18 billion, down R4.87 billion from R6.05 billion (Eskom, 16 October 2026).
• Customers still affected by load reduction: 193,556, down from about 1.69 million, with a target of ending load reduction by March 2027 (Eskom, 16 October 2026).
• Largest single operator in South Africa: about 190 MW of data centre IT load in the first quarter of 2026 (Baker McKenzie, 11 June 2026).
• Announced expansion that could push national IT load past 1,200 MW, "roughly one stage of load shedding" (Baker McKenzie, 11 June 2026).
• Utilisation: above 83 percent now, projected above 94 percent by 2030 (African Energy Chamber outlook, as distributed 9 February 2026).
• Self generation or distributed generation registration threshold: 100 MW, raised from 1 MW (Eskom wheeling page, read 19 October 2026).

Terms first

Load shedding means planned, rotating power cuts that the utility imposes when demand exceeds supply, so that the whole grid does not collapse. South Africans talk about stages, where a higher stage cuts more.

Load reduction is different. Eskom uses it for cutting supply to specific local feeders, mainly where customers do not pay or where the network is overloaded by illegal connections. It affects certain neighbourhoods, not the whole country.

The energy availability factor (EAF) is the share of Eskom's generating capacity that is actually available to produce power in a period, after planned maintenance and unplanned breakdowns. Planned capability loss (PCLF) is maintenance that was scheduled. Unplanned capability loss (UCLF) is breakdowns. Eskom publishes both because the second one is what causes shortages.

Cold reserve is capacity that is available but not running. Open cycle gas turbines (OCGT) are fast starting plants that burn diesel in Eskom's case and are expensive to run, so their use is a sign of stress.

A megawatt (MW) is a thousand kilowatts. IT load is the power consumed by servers, storage and network equipment, not counting cooling. A power purchase agreement (PPA) is a long contract to buy electricity from a named generator at an agreed price. Wheeling is moving electricity from a generator to a buyer somewhere else over the existing grid, with the buyer paying the grid owner for use of the wires.

Curtailment means a generator is told to hold back output because the grid cannot take it or demand is not there.

What Eskom is reporting

Eskom's 2 October 2026 statement said South Africa had recorded 504 consecutive days without load shedding since 16 May 2025. By 16 October the count was 518, which is simple arithmetic and matches the statement. The same statement put the year to date EAF at 68.2%, up from 62.63% a year earlier, and described it as its highest level in six years. For the week of 9 to 15 October, EAF was 70.80% against 63.58%. Compared with three years ago, Eskom says EAF is up by 12.8 points, returning about 6,536 MW to the grid.

Unplanned outages are the main driver. Eskom says average unplanned outages fell over three years from 16,345 MW to 9,064 MW, and that in the week to 15 October they averaged 7,707 MW, down from 10,646 MW a year earlier. Planned maintenance, by contrast, is higher than last year: 12.72% year to date against 11.31%. That is normal. A utility doing more scheduled work is usually trading breakdowns for planned downtime.

On the system status, the surplus on 16 October was 5,695 MW and the evening peak forecast was 23,966 MW against 26,143 MW available excluding gas. The 2 October statement added 6,722 MW in cold reserve. Diesel spending is the cost signal. Eskom says it spent R1.18 billion on diesel from 1 April to 15 October 2026, down R4.87 billion from R6.05 billion, and that OCGT generation is about 85 percent lower than last year at 152.41 GWh. It says annual diesel spending fell by R23.0 billion between the financial years ended March 2023 and March 2026.

These are statements by the utility about itself. They are useful, but they are not an independent audit. Eskom's own text also mentions a trip of Koeberg Unit 1 during testing linked to maintenance on Unit 2, saying the protection system worked as designed, that there were no nuclear safety concerns and that demand was not affected. It is reported here as Eskom's account.

Why a good week on the grid does not settle the data centre question

A data centre does not need a grid with spare capacity on an average day. It needs a firm connection that holds on the worst day. Here is why the two differ.

First, there is the peak. On 16 October Eskom forecast an evening peak of 23,966 MW. Baker McKenzie says announced expansions could add about 1,200 MW of data centre load if they go ahead, and compares that to roughly one stage of load shedding. Set against Eskom's forecast peak, 1,200 MW is about 5 percent; that ratio is simple division of the two published figures, not a statistic either source publishes. Data centres run all hours, so they add to the evening peak and to the overnight base.

Second, there is the difference between national surplus and local capacity. A surplus of 5,695 MW somewhere in the country does not help a campus in a part of Gauteng where the local substations are full. Data centre developers worry about local grid connection, transmission lines and substations as much as the national balance.

Third, there is dependence on an improving trend that has only run for about 17 months. Eskom's statements show improvement, but the record before May 2025 included long periods of load shedding. A lender does not want to rely only on an improving trend.

Wheeling: how private power reaches a data centre

Many developers do not plan to rely only on Eskom supply. They plan to buy power from solar or wind plants and wheel it to their sites. Eskom's wheeling page, as it stood on 19 October 2026, sets out the rules.

Eskom says it has approved third party wheeling since 2008 and defines wheeling as delivery of energy from a generator to an end user in another area using existing networks. The page says an amendment to the Electricity Regulation Act raised the threshold at which self generation or distributed generation needs only registration with the regulator, NERSA, rather than a licence, from 1 MW to 100 MW.

Buyer conditions listed on the page:

• The buyer must be on a medium voltage or higher network and on a time of use tariff.
• Wheeling is not currently allowed for generators or loads at low voltage, below 1 kV, though the page says this is under investigation.
• The buyer pays full tariff charges for all energy passing through the Eskom meter, signs an amendment agreement, and pays or updates security deposits.
• Wheeled energy is credited in the same time of use periods in which it was generated, with no swapping between periods. Banking from month to month may be allowed case by case.

Generator conditions listed on the page include paying for a cost estimate letter, then a budget quote, then connection charges, paying NERSA approved use of system charges, paying an administration charge, and the generator may nominate more than one buyer though Eskom may limit the number. The page says Eskom does not give deemed energy payments for network or system unavailability.

One line matters most to data centre planners: "Wheeling does not exempt customers from load shedding." In plain terms, a wheeled solar contract is a commercial arrangement for the energy. It is not a physical guarantee that the site stays powered during a cut. That is why developers pair wheeling with backup generators and batteries. The schedules mentioned on the page are dated March 2026, and the page says a 2026/2027 wheeling tool is available. Charges change each year, so prices are not quoted here.

What lenders and developers are doing

The Baker McKenzie article of 11 June 2026 describes how developers respond. It says they use utility scale solar delivered through the Eskom virtual wheeling framework, long term renewable PPAs, and on site generation and storage. Hybrid designs combine solar, on site generation, batteries and in some cases backup gas or diesel. Lenders focus on transmission risk, especially curtailment and grid access, and wheeling depends on the cooperation of municipalities and Eskom.

The firm also says new AI focused facilities each draw 100 MW or more, compared with 10 to 25 MW for a conventional data centre, and that AI workloads run at four to six times the rack density of traditional deployments, often above 30 kW per rack. Rack density is power drawn per cabinet of servers. Higher density means more heat, which means different cooling and more power for it. For the wider global context, see the comparison of data centre electricity demand forecasts.

Baker McKenzie says the largest single operator had about 190 MW of IT load in the first quarter of 2026. Teraco's website lists 228 MW of IT load across eight locations, undated, and the Fortren report as relayed on 27 July 2026 puts the Isando campus at 70 MW. These numbers are not contradictory because they measure a company, a quarter and a campus. They do show why you should always ask what a figure is counting. The firm does not name the operator, so it is not named here.

Policy: where data must sit

Power is not the only constraint. Baker McKenzie says the National Data and Cloud Policy was adopted in 2024 and is still being implemented, and requires government data bearing on national security to be stored within South Africa. It adds that the Protection of Personal Information Act (POPIA) permits cross border processing if adequate protection travels with the data and that South Africa has no general data localisation requirement in its data protection laws. The policy text should be checked for exact wording. A separate explainer on data residency, sovereignty and localisation describes the differences between those terms.

How South Africa compares inside Africa

The Africa Data Centres Association and Rising Advisory report, published 24 February 2026 and reported by Kapitalis, says power supply is now the main constraint on new sites, ahead of fibre. It puts transmission losses at up to 25 percent in certain urban centres, and says operators are turning to long term PPAs, microgrids and co location with renewable energy. It also says average occupancy outside South Africa is close to one third of available capacity. South Africa is the exception, with the African Energy Chamber outlook of February 2026 giving utilisation above 83 percent and projecting above 94 percent by 2030. Tight space and strong demand in one country, and spare space elsewhere, suggests power and trust in the grid, not only demand, decide where customers go.

This is why the Eskom numbers matter beyond South Africa. A visible recovery in the continent's most developed market is a data point for lenders who price grid risk across Africa. No published source quantifies that effect, so treat it as an interpretation. For the continent wide capacity picture, see Africa data centre growth in 2026, and for what building a site involves, see how long it takes to build an AI data centre.

What is firm and what is uncertain

Firm, because it is Eskom's own reporting or a primary page:

• Eskom reports 518 consecutive days without load shedding as of 16 October 2026.
• Eskom reports a year to date EAF of 68.2%, a six year high by its own description.
• The wheeling rules and thresholds listed above are as stated on Eskom's page.

Uncertain:

• Whether the improvement will hold through the summer. Eskom said a power system status and Summer Outlook would follow in the weeks after 2 October; it had not appeared on Eskom's site as of 19 October 2026.
• The 1,200 MW figure is a possibility if announced expansions proceed. It is not capacity in service.
• Capacity figures differ by operator, campus and date.
• Local grid connection timelines, which Eskom and the cited sources do not publish.
• The size of the transmission constraint, which Baker McKenzie describes qualitatively.

What to watch next

• Eskom's Summer Outlook and its weekly updates, next due 23 October 2026.
• Progress on ending load reduction by March 2027.
• Wheeling volumes and any change to low voltage rules.
• Announcements of 100 MW class AI campuses and whether they carry signed grid connections.
• Cooling and rack density changes, since they alter how much power a given building can use.

For teams running software in a new facility, Safeguard offers SBOM and dependency scanning, with a free scan at https://gold.safeguard.sh/scan.

Quick check

Sources

• Eskom media statement, 2 October 2026
• Eskom media statement, 16 October 2026
• Eskom wheeling page
• Baker McKenzie, South Africa: the megawatt and the token, 11 June 2026
• African Energy Chamber release in Windhoek Express, 9 February 2026
• Kapitalis on the ADCA report, 25 February 2026
• Teraco website
• Nairametrics on the Fortren report, 27 July 2026

Last reviewed: 19 October 2026.